RIVER FORECASTS
ADF&G pre-season run forecasts with river-level breakdowns. Plan your season before the first fish hits the water.
Featured Forecast
2026 Bristol Bay Sockeye
45.32M
Forecast Total Run (Fish)
Escapement
11.79M
Harvestable Surplus
32.26M
Published November 2025
2026 SOCKEYE FORECAST
Per-district total run, escapement and harvestable surplus as published by ADF&G in Special Publication No. 26-08. RedRun republishes these figures unchanged.
28
Forecasts
Tracked
12
Regions
Covered
11.30M
Forecast total run
Escapement
4.75M
Surplus
6.23M
9.19M
Forecast total run
Escapement
1.40M
Surplus
7.53M
5.36M
Forecast total run
Escapement
0.95M
Surplus
4.26M
Source: ADF&G Special Publication No. 26-08 — published November 2025.
Data-Driven Predictions
RedRun republishes the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) pre-season forecasts in full, and runs its own Bristol Bay model alongside them so you can compare the two.
That model starts from the same sibling regression ADF&G uses, then adds Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Gulf of Alaska sea surface temperature anomalies through a ridge regression stage. A Bayesian ensemble weights the two by recent performance.
Sibling Regression Models
Predicting adult returns based on the abundance of younger 'siblings' from the same brood year observed in previous seasons — the same age-class method ADF&G has used for decades.
Environmental Signals
A ridge regression stage adds Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Gulf of Alaska sea surface temperature anomalies, which the ADF&G forecast does not account for.
Plan Your 2026 Season
Get pre-season forecasts for every region before the fleet arrives. Secure your data advantage today.